Greece’s Debt Crisis

The ruling military junta, which seized power from Greece’s democratically elected government in 1967, collapses. The Turkish invasion of northern Cyprus three days prior has undermined the Greek government and created divisions in the military establishment. The military calls on exiled former Prime Minister Constantine Karamanlis to return to Greece and lead the transition back to democratic rule.

Under the leadership of center-right Prime Minister Constantine Karamanlis, Greece becomes the tenth member of the European Economic Community. The ECC, established by the 1957 Treaty of Rome as a free trade area known as the Common Market, is the forerunner to the European Union.

The euro is introduced as an accounting currency in eleven EU countries. (Euro banknotes and coins begin circulating three years later.) Greece, however, is unable to adopt the euro because it fails to meet the fiscal criteria—inflation below 1.5 percent, a budget deficit below 3 percent, and a debt-to-GDP ratio below 60 percent—outlined by Maastricht.

Greece hosts the 2004 summer Olympic Games, which costs the state in excess of 9 billion euros ($11.6 billion). The resultant public borrowing contributes to a rising deficit (6.1 percent) and debt-to-GDP ratio (110.6 percent) for 2004. Greece’s unsustainable finances prompt the European Commission to place the country under fiscal monitoring in 2005.

The U.S. subprime mortgage market collapses after the housing bubble burst the year prior. The U.S. crisis ultimately triggers a global banking crisis and credit crunch that lasts through 2009, felling global financial behemoth Lehman Brothers and prompting government bailouts of banks in the United States and Europe. As borrowing costs rise and financing dries up, Greece is unable to service its mounting debt.

Pasok (Socialist) leader George Papandreou wins national elections, becoming prime minister. Within weeks, Papandreou reveals that Greece’s budget deficit will exceed 12 percent of GDP, nearly double the original estimates. The figure is later revised upward to 15.4 percent. Greece’s borrowing costs spike as credit-rating agencies downgrade the country’s sovereign debt to junk status in early 2010.

To avoid default, the International Monetary Fund and EU agree to provide Greece with 110 billion euros ($146 billion) in loans over three years. Germany provides the largest sum, about 22 billion euros, of the EU’s 80 billion euro portion. In exchange, Prime Minister Papandreou commits to austerity measures, including 30 billion euros in spending cuts and tax increases.

Amid public anger over austerity, Prime Minister Papandreou calls for a national referendum on a second bailout agreement under negotiation. However, Papandreou calls off the referendum after the center-right opposition agrees to back the revamped EU-IMF deal. Papandreou is forced to step down, and economist Lucas Papademos is appointed to head a unity government tasked with implementing further austerity and structural reforms.

Finance ministers approve a second EU-IMF bailout for Greece, worth 130 billion euros ($172 billion). The deal includes a 53.5 percent debt write-down—or “haircut”—for private Greek bondholders. In exchange, Greece must reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio from 160 percent to 120.5 percent by 2020. Greece and its private creditors complete the debt restructuring on March 9, the largest such restructuring in history.

Greece’s Parliament approves unpopular new austerity measures, agreed to as a condition of the ongoing EU-IMF bailout. The legislation include layoffs of some twenty-five thousand public servants, as well as wage cuts, tax reforms, and other budget cuts. The approval opens the way for a new tranche of bailout funds worth nearly 7 billion euros ($9 billion), while labor unions call a general strike in protest.

Greece returns to international financial markets with its first issue of Eurobonds in four years. Despite an early morning bomb blast, the government raises 3 billion euros in five year bonds, with an initial yield of under 5 percent—a low rate seen as a mark of a return to economic normalcy. In another sign of renewed investor confidence, the offer raises 1 billion euros more than expected.

Tensions over Greece’s third bailout grow as the IMF warns that the country’s debt is unsustainable and that budget cuts EU creditors demand of Athens will hamper Greece’s ability to grow. To forestall a crisis that could put the 86 billion euro program in jeopardy, EU representatives agree to more lenient budget targets, but they decline to consider any debt relief. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Tsipras agrees to implement deeper tax and pension reforms even as he faces domestic pressure over a weakening economy and rising poverty.

Greece receives its final loan from European creditors, completing a bailout program begun in 2015, the country’s third since 2010. In total, Greece now owes the EU and IMF roughly 290 billion euros ($330 billion), part of a public debt that has climbed to 180 percent of GDP. To finance this debt, Athens commits to running a budget surplus through 2060, accepts continued EU financial supervision, and imposes additional austerity measures. EU officials hail the bailout as a success, pointing to Greece’s return to growth. Unemployment, too, has fallen, though, at 20 percent, it remains the EU’s highest. The IMF, however, maintains that the Greek economy, which has shrunk by 25 percent since the beginning of the crisis, will likely require further debt relief.